IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Texas Arlington
Sun Belt
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	+0.3	#156
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	67.9	#206
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-0.9	#198

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+1.2	#131

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	11.9%	18.9%	9.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.2%	0.6%	0.1%
Average Seed	13.5	12.9	13.8

.500 or above	59.4%	78.8%	52.9%
.500 or above in Conference	70.5%	81.1%	66.9%
Conference Champion	12.6%	19.7%	10.3%
Last Place in Conference	3.6%	1.7%	4.3%

First Four	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%
First Round	11.7%	18.8%	9.4%
Second Round	1.7%	3.7%	1.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.5%	1.1%	0.3%
Elite Eight	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Oklahoma St. (Home) - 25.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	1 - 3	1 - 5
Quad 3	4 - 5	5 - 9
Quad 4	7 - 2	12 - 12

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 25, 2020	42	Oklahoma St.	L	67-74	25%
Nov 27, 2020	109	@ Louisiana Tech	L	66-73	26%
Nov 28, 2020	283	Northwestern St.	W	79-72	75%
Dec 02, 2020	46	@ Arkansas	L	68-81	13%
Dec 04, 2020	98	@ Tulsa	L	62-70	24%
Dec 19, 2020	178	@ Oral Roberts	L	74-76	44%
Jan 01, 2021	127	@ Arkansas Little Rock	L	70-75	34%
Jan 02, 2021	127	@ Arkansas Little Rock	L	70-75	34%
Jan 08, 2021	278	@ Louisiana Monroe	W	68-64	63%
Jan 09, 2021	278	@ Louisiana Monroe	W	68-64	63%
Jan 15, 2021	185	Louisiana	W	78-73	67%
Jan 16, 2021	185	Louisiana	W	78-73	66%
Jan 22, 2021	127	Arkansas Little Rock	W	73-72	54%
Jan 23, 2021	127	Arkansas Little Rock	W	73-72	54%
Jan 29, 2021	219	@ Arkansas St.	W	72-71	55%
Jan 30, 2021	219	@ Arkansas St.	W	72-71	55%
Feb 05, 2021	278	Louisiana Monroe	W	71-61	79%
Feb 06, 2021	278	Louisiana Monroe	W	71-61	79%
Feb 11, 2021	143	Texas St.	W	68-66	58%
Feb 13, 2021	143	@ Texas St.	L	65-69	38%
Feb 19, 2021	185	@ Louisiana	L	75-76	47%
Feb 20, 2021	185	@ Louisiana	L	75-76	45%
Feb 26, 2021	219	Arkansas St.	W	75-68	73%
Feb 27, 2021	219	Arkansas St.	W	75-68	73%
Projected Record						12 - 12	10 - 8

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Sun Belt Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.4	1.3	2.4	3.4	3.0	1.5	0.5		12.6	1st
2nd											0.0	0.5	2.2	3.9	4.0	2.1	0.5	0.1			13.3	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.5	2.8	4.6	3.1	1.1	0.2	0.0				12.3	3rd
4th									0.0	0.4	2.7	4.8	3.3	0.6	0.1	0.0					12.0	4th
5th								0.0	0.4	2.5	4.6	2.5	0.4	0.0							10.5	5th
6th							0.0	0.1	2.1	4.0	2.4	0.5	0.0								9.2	6th
7th						0.0	0.1	1.5	3.6	2.4	0.4	0.0									8.1	7th
8th						0.1	1.0	2.9	2.4	0.4	0.0										6.8	8th
9th				0.0	0.1	0.9	2.2	2.1	0.4	0.0											5.7	9th
10th			0.0	0.2	0.8	1.7	1.3	0.4	0.0												4.4	10th
11th		0.0	0.2	0.7	1.2	1.0	0.3	0.0													3.4	11th
12th	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.6	0.5	0.1	0.0														1.9	12th

Total	0.1	0.2	0.6	1.5	2.5	3.8	4.9	7.0	8.9	9.8	10.7	11.2	11.0	8.9	7.5	5.7	3.5	1.6	0.5			Total

Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.5		0.5	0.0
17-1	94.2%	1.5		1.4	0.2
16-2	86.2%	3.0		2.4	0.6	0.0
15-3	60.4%	3.4		2.1	1.1	0.2	0.0
14-4	31.8%	2.4		0.9	1.1	0.3	0.0	0.0
13-5	14.5%	1.3		0.3	0.6	0.4	0.1
12-6	3.6%	0.4		0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1		0.0
11-7	0.2%	0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	12.6%	12.6		7.6	3.7	1.0	0.3	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.5%		100.0%	100.0%		10.8			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
17-1	1.6%		97.2%	94.1%	3.1%	12.3						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.5	0.3	0.1		0.0		52.6%
16-2	3.5%		85.2%	83.2%	2.1%	13.1									0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.5	1.1	0.9	0.3	0.0	0.5		12.2%
15-3	5.7%		56.9%	56.0%	0.8%	13.7										0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	1.0	1.0	0.7	0.2	2.4		1.9%
14-4	7.5%		28.1%	27.8%	0.2%	14.2												0.0	0.1	0.4	0.7	0.7	0.2	5.4		0.3%
13-5	8.9%		12.0%	11.9%	0.0%	14.8													0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.2	7.8		0.1%
12-6	11.0%		3.0%	3.0%		15.2														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	10.7
11-7	11.2%		0.2%	0.2%		15.9																0.0	0.0	11.2
10-8	10.7%																							10.7
9-9	9.8%																							9.8
8-10	8.9%																							8.9
7-11	7.0%																							7.0
6-12	4.9%																							4.9
5-13	3.8%																							3.8
4-14	2.5%																							2.5
3-15	1.5%																							1.5
2-16	0.6%																							0.6
1-17	0.2%																							0.2
0-18	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		11.9%	11.7%	0.2%	13.5			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	1.4	3.2	3.1	2.4	0.8	88.1		0.2%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%